Bitcoin (BTC) bears lost out at the last minute every bit 2022 came to an end — and the consensus is building around Prc again being the reason for weakness.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

China "concluding hammer" could at present provide optimism on BTC

Hours before the yearly close, BTC/USD dived $ii,000 to lows of $45,630 on Bitstamp earlier a modest recovery drew a line nether 2022 at $47,200, information from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

While something of an anti-climax and far below many popular projections, the lack of parabolic upside for Bitcoin has recently seen explanations shift to exchanges.

Chinese users, following years of the government tightening the screws effectually crypto trading, had until December. 31 to exit the major Chinese exchanges, which were obliged to unregister them.

For Bobby Lee, former CEO of exchange BTCC, this constitutes the "final hammer" in Beijing's arsenal and i that could have been having a considerable bear upon on selling beliefs.

"Mayhap that's why the hotly anticipated year end bull market place hasn't taken off yet," he argued in a series of tweets on the matter in early December.

"Waiting for the concluding hammer to drop in Communist china! Look a mini-correction when the enforcement news gets out, and then a relief rally that could bring us dorsum on track for a real Bitcoin bull market."

Other voices supported the theory, while this week, Blockstream also best-selling the possible pressure from offloading Chinese users, who could be selling their BTC in order to withdraw capital — leading to ascension remainder.

It's as well a potential reason for optimism going forward as the Chinese exchange overhang will be cleared from the end of this month.

"I think this probably explains why nosotros've seen Bitcoin typically trade weaker over Asia hours vs US and European hours," Blockstream analyst Jesse Knutson wrote in the firm's latest weekly newsletter.

"It's also a potential reason for optimism going frontward as the Chinese exchange overhang will exist cleared from the end of this month."
Bitcoin exchange BTC balance chart. Source: Coinglass

Staying absurd on holiday volatility

On shorter timeframes, sparse holiday liquidity could provide another reason to discard toll dips like the one seen Friday.

Related: First Usa Bitcoin ETF a 'dud' in 2022 equally GBTC discount stays almost record lows

Prior to the return of Wall Street and institutional traders, BTC price action overall may provide an unreliable impression of how the market place will perform after.

2022, ane forecast this calendar week said, should see a major "flippening" of Bitcoin buying in favor of big-volume institutional traders and away from retail.